Seasonality
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Seasonality
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MKA.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
MKA.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
MKA.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
MKA.V Distribution of Daily % Changes
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +18.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -11.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +31.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -82.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.52% | -11.50% | -34.00% | 25.76% | 4.82% | -11.49% | -6.49% | -1.39% | 8.45% | -37.66% | ||
| 2025 | 6.25% | 11.76% | 31.58% | 36.00% | -11.76% | -6.67% | 150.00% | 11.43% | 41.03% | 5.45% | -32.76% | 7.69% |
| 2024 | 5.88% | -38.89% | 0.00% | 9.09% | 8.33% | -15.38% | 0.00% | -9.09% | 20.00% | -8.33% | 36.36% | 6.67% |
| 2023 | 16.00% | -20.69% | -8.70% | -14.29% | 11.11% | -15.00% | 5.88% | 11.11% | -25.00% | -6.67% | 28.57% | -5.56% |
| 2022 | -13.46% | -4.44% | -11.63% | -15.79% | 12.50% | -16.67% | -6.67% | -21.43% | -18.18% | 16.67% | 23.81% | -3.85% |
| 2021 | -3.57% | 48.15% | -5.00% | -7.89% | 45.71% | -15.69% | -11.63% | 23.68% | 0.00% | 6.38% | 4.00% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | -18.75% | -53.85% | 16.67% | 14.29% | 12.50% | -11.11% | 12.50% | 22.22% | 36.36% | 53.33% | 21.74% | |
| Avg | 7.60% | -4.91% | -11.66% | 7.08% | 12.14% | -9.77% | 17.14% | 3.83% | 6.93% | 8.31% | 18.89% | 4.45% |