Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +11.4% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.6% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +26.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90.11% | -17.15% | -13.80% | 32.11% | -15.76% | -12.01% | 3.92% | 4.64% | -5.94% | -3.68% | ||
| 2025 | -15.79% | -5.56% | -5.74% | -9.36% | 11.53% | -9.72% | 12.82% | 14.39% | 9.27% | 2.91% | 3.65% | 4.55% |
| 2024 | 0.93% | -4.37% | -4.30% | -1.38% | -7.53% | -6.44% | -6.45% | 9.08% | -10.43% | -5.88% | -6.25% | 14.00% |
| 2023 | -9.85% | 4.37% | -7.00% | 7.36% | 0.81% | 36.80% | -9.94% | -25.39% | 2.70% | 0.42% | -15.61% | 18.00% |
| 2022 | 21.57% | 14.52% | -3.19% | -5.81% | 10.62% | -5.26% | -3.99% | -6.40% | -2.55% | 8.21% | -5.10% | -4.07% |
| 2021 | -18.57% | 24.56% | 3.52% | 36.05% | -25.50% | 0.67% | -2.67% | -3.97% | 14.12% | 27.50% | 7.84% | 4.55% |
| 2020 | -18.42% | -22.58% | -4.17% | 21.74% | 28.57% | 2.78% | 0.00% | 20.27% | 11.24% | 31.31% | 7.69% | |
| Avg | 11.40% | -0.29% | -7.58% | 7.83% | -0.59% | 4.66% | -0.50% | -1.09% | 3.92% | 7.40% | 2.64% | 7.45% |
LA.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
LA.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
LA.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
LA.V Distribution of Daily % Changes