Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +30.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -12.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +36.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +36.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -104.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.77% | 5.43% | 0.86% | -20.85% | -61.29% | -2.78% | 8.57% | 19.74% | -10.99% | -9.88% | ||
| 2025 | 11.11% | 23.33% | 18.92% | 25.00% | -1.82% | 51.85% | -21.95% | 0.00% | 60.94% | 81.55% | -27.27% | 24.26% |
| 2024 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 36.36% | 26.67% | 5.26% | 5.00% | 0.00% | 19.05% | 4.00% | -15.38% | 27.27% | -3.57% |
| 2023 | 0.00% | -14.29% | 25.00% | -20.00% | -25.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -11.11% | 0.00% | 25.00% |
| 2022 | 100.00% | 11.54% | 3.45% | -30.00% | -19.05% | 11.76% | 21.05% | -4.35% | 0.00% | -22.73% | -17.65% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | 28.57% | -22.22% | -7.14% | -3.85% | 0.00% | -12.00% | -9.09% | -20.00% | -12.50% | -14.29% | 16.67% | -7.14% |
| 2020 | -33.33% | 0.00% | 40.00% | 14.29% | 6.25% | 117.65% | 18.92% | -31.82% | 10.00% | 3.03% | -17.65% | |
| Avg | 30.08% | -4.22% | 11.06% | 2.42% | -12.52% | 8.58% | 16.60% | 4.77% | 1.38% | 4.67% | 0.34% | 3.48% |
GQC.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
GQC.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GQC.V Distribution of Daily % Changes
GQC.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years