Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
GMG.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
GMG.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +28.0% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -9.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +49.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -11.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -85.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.33% | -9.80% | -11.30% | 16.67% | 5.04% | -4.80% | -18.91% | 18.13% | 3.51% | -16.10% | ||
| 2025 | 31.75% | 13.25% | -29.79% | -7.58% | 1.64% | -3.23% | 35.00% | 17.28% | -14.74% | 37.04% | 9.01% | 85.95% |
| 2024 | -9.02% | 0.00% | -38.84% | -32.43% | 2.00% | 27.45% | -9.23% | -3.39% | 5.26% | 1.67% | -1.64% | 5.00% |
| 2023 | 2.95% | -3.69% | -17.45% | 3.09% | 12.50% | 4.00% | -6.84% | -30.28% | 0.00% | -3.29% | -12.93% | 3.91% |
| 2022 | -22.24% | -20.33% | 19.58% | -0.50% | -14.71% | -20.18% | 28.94% | 9.09% | -21.88% | 4.00% | -13.46% | -12.22% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 236.49% | 106.19% | -10.30% | -24.88% | 34.39% | -3.79% | 62.56% | 67.88% | -1.81% |
| 2020 | -15.38% | 13.64% | -20.00% | 15.00% | 30.43% | 16.67% | -22.86% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | 2.79% | -5.14% | -9.17% | 27.96% | 18.24% | 3.34% | 2.96% | 3.20% | -4.52% | 17.00% | 8.14% | 13.47% |
GMG.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
GMG.V Distribution of Daily % Changes