Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.09% | 28.02% | -0.46% | -0.93% | 3.04% | -21.09% | -14.08% | 28.76% | -22.08% | -19.33% | ||
| 2025 | 3.57% | 6.90% | 6.45% | 9.09% | 20.56% | 22.12% | -12.83% | 10.39% | 25.88% | 0.00% | -9.35% | -6.87% |
| 2024 | -12.61% | -3.85% | 10.00% | -5.45% | 9.62% | 2.63% | 6.84% | 10.40% | -2.17% | 2.22% | 0.36% | 1.08% |
| 2023 | -2.94% | -11.11% | 2.27% | -10.00% | 2.47% | 31.33% | 22.94% | 14.18% | -15.03% | -16.15% | 5.50% | 3.48% |
| 2022 | -16.13% | 17.31% | 14.75% | -7.14% | -13.85% | 5.36% | -6.78% | 3.64% | 12.28% | -4.69% | 47.54% | 13.33% |
| 2021 | -13.89% | -2.15% | -16.48% | 5.26% | 6.25% | -14.12% | 1.37% | 0.00% | 18.92% | -5.68% | -19.28% | -7.46% |
| 2020 | -20.00% | -27.08% | 8.57% | 6.58% | 23.46% | 26.00% | 19.05% | 42.67% | -14.95% | 16.48% | 1.89% | |
| Avg | -2.82% | 2.16% | -1.51% | -0.09% | 4.95% | 7.10% | 3.35% | 12.35% | 8.64% | -6.54% | 6.88% | 0.91% |
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +12.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -6.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +24.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -19.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
FWZ.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FWZ.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FWZ.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FWZ.V Distribution of Daily % Changes