Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +27.4% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +30.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +30.2% historically, with January alone posting a 40% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +41.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.17% | 19.91% | -17.59% | 15.11% | 4.17% | -23.20% | 3.13% | 50.00% | 21.21% | -8.19% | ||
| 2025 | 22.58% | -0.35% | 1.94% | -26.08% | 2.34% | -5.94% | -19.90% | 24.24% | 3.90% | -14.55% | 19.51% | 2.30% |
| 2024 | -15.92% | 3.03% | 5.88% | 2.08% | 20.41% | 4.52% | 51.35% | -2.14% | -6.93% | 54.12% | 2.54% | 15.38% |
| 2023 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 70.00% | 17.65% | -27.50% | 17.24% | 7.35% | 94.52% | 9.86% | 23.08% | 23.96% | 31.93% |
| 2022 | 7.14% | 41.67% | 17.65% | -10.00% | -11.11% | 0.00% | -37.50% | 0.00% | -12.00% | -9.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | -12.73% | 8.33% | -11.54% | -2.17% | -2.22% | -2.27% | -15.12% | -10.96% | -13.85% | |||
| Avg | 1.73% | 12.85% | 15.58% | -2.33% | -0.56% | -3.15% | 0.38% | 27.40% | 2.29% | 7.69% | 7.01% | 7.15% |
FDR.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
FDR.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
FDR.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
FDR.V Distribution of Daily % Changes