Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17% | -8.80% | -2.63% | 15.32% | 7.81% | 15.94% | 8.75% | -1.72% | 4.68% | -2.23% | ||
| 2025 | -20.63% | -8.00% | -21.74% | -16.67% | 80.00% | -7.41% | 6.00% | -5.66% | 34.00% | 55.22% | -9.62% | 27.66% |
| 2024 | -8.33% | -15.15% | -14.29% | 33.33% | 37.50% | 25.00% | -9.09% | 16.00% | -12.07% | 76.47% | 24.44% | 12.50% |
| 2023 | 3.13% | 3.03% | 41.18% | -6.25% | -20.00% | 2.78% | -8.11% | 2.94% | -14.29% | -23.33% | 21.74% | 28.57% |
| 2022 | -3.45% | 1.79% | -1.75% | -10.71% | -27.00% | -10.96% | -7.69% | 5.00% | -12.70% | -12.73% | -16.67% | -20.00% |
| 2021 | -4.44% | 23.26% | -18.87% | -15.12% | 30.14% | 13.68% | -9.26% | 18.37% | -1.72% | 10.53% | -11.11% | 3.57% |
| Avg | -4.93% | -0.65% | -3.02% | -0.02% | 18.07% | 6.51% | -3.23% | 5.82% | -0.35% | 21.23% | 1.76% | 10.46% |
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +21.2% with a 60% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -4.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +33.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -8.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +40.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
ECU.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ECU.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ECU.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ECU.V Distribution of Daily % Changes