Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.47% | 121.49% | -19.78% | 27.91% | -5.82% | -6.95% | -24.07% | 0.55% | -12.50% | -16.15% | ||
| 2025 | 14.86% | 36.47% | 37.93% | -1.25% | -17.72% | 6.15% | -27.54% | 24.00% | 8.06% | 17.91% | 49.37% | -16.95% |
| 2024 | -8.33% | -7.27% | -7.84% | 6.38% | -4.00% | -21.88% | 20.00% | -18.89% | 12.33% | 0.00% | -17.07% | 8.82% |
| 2023 | 5.26% | 62.50% | -32.31% | 15.91% | -10.78% | -5.49% | -10.47% | -11.69% | 79.41% | -18.85% | -4.04% | 26.32% |
| 2022 | 2.08% | 28.57% | -6.35% | 0.00% | -16.95% | -2.04% | 54.17% | 29.73% | -14.58% | 29.27% | -5.66% | -24.00% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | 49.02% | 44.74% | -44.55% | 93.44% | 22.03% | 43.06% | -56.31% | -26.67% | -19.70% | 18.87% | -23.81% |
| 2020 | 15.79% | -31.82% | -26.67% | 109.09% | 47.83% | 67.65% | -7.02% | 1.89% | -22.22% | 7.14% | 13.33% | |
| Avg | 6.22% | 43.80% | -2.20% | -3.18% | 21.04% | 5.66% | 17.54% | -5.66% | 6.85% | -2.27% | 8.10% | -2.71% |
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +43.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -5.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +47.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +47.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -20.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
DBG.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DBG.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DBG.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DBG.V Distribution of Daily % Changes