Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.30% | 13.74% | -20.77% | 9.15% | 6.15% | -17.37% | 18.47% | 36.56% | -9.45% | -3.91% | ||
| 2025 | 27.27% | -12.24% | 10.47% | 47.37% | -4.29% | 0.00% | 22.39% | 14.63% | 44.68% | 8.82% | 7.43% | 3.77% |
| 2024 | -39.17% | -24.66% | -20.00% | -25.00% | 21.21% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.50% | 9.44% | 60.78% | -14.63% | 10.00% |
| 2023 | 6.82% | -7.45% | -6.90% | 17.28% | -2.11% | -8.60% | -8.24% | -21.79% | -3.28% | 10.17% | 7.69% | -14.29% |
| 2022 | -0.71% | -0.71% | 16.55% | 4.94% | 0.00% | -10.59% | -7.89% | -23.57% | -18.69% | -13.79% | 5.33% | 11.39% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | 2300.00% | -13.33% | 43.27% | 13.42% | -21.89% | 8.33% | 21.68% | -17.24% | 17.36% | -4.14% | -12.96% |
| 2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Avg | 0.75% | 378.11% | -4.86% | 13.86% | 4.91% | -8.35% | 4.72% | 6.29% | 0.78% | 13.89% | 0.28% | -0.35% |
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +378.1% with a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.4% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +374.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +374.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -512.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
CERT.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CERT.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CERT.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CERT.V Distribution of Daily % Changes