Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 4Y.
Jul averages +5.8% with a 40% win rate across 4 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -4.1% with only a 0% win rate across 4 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +2.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 4Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -25.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47% | -1.20% | 2.44% | 2.38% | 0.00% | -6.98% | -2.50% | -8.97% | -5.63% | -1.49% | ||
| 2025 | 3.75% | 6.02% | -6.82% | 4.88% | 3.49% | -5.62% | -3.57% | 1.23% | 0.00% | -1.22% | 4.94% | -4.71% |
| 2024 | -8.00% | 5.80% | 9.59% | 0.00% | -2.50% | -3.85% | -1.33% | 6.76% | -2.53% | -5.19% | 9.59% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | -3.75% | 1.30% | -7.69% | -2.78% | -4.29% | 19.40% | 6.25% | -4.71% | 11.11% | -8.89% | -4.88% | -3.85% |
| 2022 | 30.00% | -6.41% | -5.48% | 30.43% | -3.33% | -8.05% | ||||||
| Avg | -1.38% | 2.98% | -0.62% | 1.12% | -0.82% | 0.74% | 5.77% | -2.42% | -0.51% | 3.78% | 1.58% | -4.15% |
CEI.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
4 years of data
CEI.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 4 years
CEI.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2022 to 2026
CEI.V Distribution of Daily % Changes