Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +21.1% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -5.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +40.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +60.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.00% | 30.43% | 4.44% | 0.00% | -4.26% | 4.44% | 6.38% | 44.00% | 11.11% | -28.13% | ||
| 2025 | 29.27% | 0.00% | 30.19% | 15.94% | 7.50% | -15.12% | 4.11% | 13.16% | 6.98% | 23.91% | 33.33% | -9.21% |
| 2024 | -10.26% | -17.14% | 17.24% | 8.82% | 91.89% | -29.58% | 30.00% | -4.62% | -4.84% | 5.08% | -20.97% | -16.33% |
| 2023 | 3.70% | -14.29% | -4.17% | 21.74% | -25.00% | 9.52% | 21.74% | -7.14% | -11.54% | 0.00% | 56.52% | 8.33% |
| 2022 | -9.88% | 20.55% | -3.41% | -7.06% | -26.58% | -12.07% | 11.76% | 19.30% | -26.47% | -22.00% | -38.46% | 12.50% |
| 2021 | -8.45% | -7.69% | -6.67% | -18.75% | 31.87% | -10.00% | -8.33% | -5.05% | -19.15% | -6.58% | 11.27% | 2.53% |
| 2020 | 13.04% | -38.46% | 75.00% | -7.14% | 19.23% | 64.52% | 88.24% | 52.08% | -30.14% | 15.69% | 20.34% | |
| Avg | 0.73% | 3.56% | -0.12% | 13.67% | 9.75% | -4.79% | 18.60% | 21.13% | 1.17% | -4.95% | 9.56% | 3.03% |
CBR.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CBR.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CBR.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CBR.V Distribution of Daily % Changes