Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +19.2% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -9.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +39.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +157.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.33% | 39.35% | -25.25% | -12.44% | -10.66% | 39.20% | 28.98% | 20.57% | 35.43% | -26.74% | ||
| 2025 | 14.29% | 6.25% | -4.41% | 4.62% | 13.24% | 1.30% | 61.54% | 66.67% | 38.10% | 0.00% | -4.83% | 17.39% |
| 2024 | -13.04% | -32.50% | -3.70% | 15.38% | -3.33% | -20.69% | 0.00% | 13.04% | 19.23% | 41.94% | 25.00% | 1.82% |
| 2023 | 39.02% | -27.19% | -12.05% | -20.55% | 3.45% | 33.33% | -11.25% | -4.23% | 2.94% | -5.71% | -6.06% | -25.81% |
| 2022 | -17.65% | 0.00% | 26.79% | 8.45% | -23.38% | -20.34% | -21.28% | 12.16% | -6.02% | 7.69% | -7.14% | 5.13% |
| 2021 | 2.83% | -21.10% | -18.60% | 4.29% | 27.40% | -11.83% | -10.98% | -5.48% | -10.14% | 1.61% | 3.17% | 4.62% |
| 2020 | -29.41% | 33.33% | 37.50% | 95.45% | 111.63% | 6.59% | 31.96% | 9.38% | 4.29% | -2.74% | 49.30% | |
| Avg | 9.80% | -9.23% | -0.56% | 5.32% | 14.60% | 18.94% | 7.66% | 19.24% | 12.70% | 8.30% | 1.23% | 8.74% |
BZ.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BZ.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BZ.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BZ.V Distribution of Daily % Changes