Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 4Y.
May averages +27.0% with a 75% win rate across 4 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -10.0% with only a 0% win rate across 4 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +32.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 4Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -130.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
BRVO.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
4 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.94% | 5.94% | -26.62% | 3.38% | 5.68% | -21.51% | -18.15% | 35.15% | -9.91% | -28.18% | ||
| 2025 | 10.11% | -0.51% | 40.00% | -11.90% | -1.04% | 18.07% | 8.19% | 0.00% | 25.66% | -23.56% | 39.73% | 17.89% |
| 2024 | -8.47% | -41.85% | 0.00% | 27.39% | 90.00% | 0.00% | -17.11% | -17.46% | -1.15% | -14.40% | -10.91% | -9.18% |
| 2023 | 20.95% | 29.92% | 2.73% | -7.96% | 13.46% | 13.28% | 21.45% | -7.60% | -31.56% | -0.97% | 1.64% | -4.84% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | 5.45% | -1.15% | -4.07% | 27.27% | |||||||
| Avg | 3.41% | -1.63% | 4.03% | 2.72% | 27.03% | 2.46% | -1.41% | 2.02% | -2.30% | -10.02% | 6.60% | 7.79% |
BRVO.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 4 years
BRVO.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2022 to 2026
BRVO.V Distribution of Daily % Changes