Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
BIG.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.41% | 14.29% | -18.75% | -3.08% | 17.46% | -24.32% | 44.64% | 62.96% | -7.58% | -18.85% | ||
| 2025 | 7.27% | 4.24% | -3.25% | 2.52% | 8.20% | -2.27% | 10.08% | 16.90% | -2.41% | -24.07% | 1.63% | 18.40% |
| 2024 | -28.26% | -15.15% | 7.14% | -10.00% | -1.23% | -18.75% | -7.69% | 11.67% | -7.46% | -19.35% | 22.00% | -9.84% |
| 2023 | 15.63% | 51.35% | -16.07% | -8.51% | -6.98% | -2.50% | 12.82% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 313.64% | 34.07% | 13.11% |
| 2022 | 6.67% | 12.50% | -11.11% | 0.00% | 31.25% | -9.52% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -36.84% | 16.67% | 28.57% | 77.78% |
| 2021 | 0.00% | -30.00% | -14.29% | -16.67% | 20.00% | -25.00% | 0.00% | -11.11% | 87.50% | |||
| Avg | -0.82% | 13.44% | -8.41% | -3.18% | 3.12% | -11.94% | 7.20% | 18.59% | -13.21% | 57.37% | 15.03% | 37.39% |
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +57.4% with a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -13.2% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +109.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.2% historically, with January alone posting a 60% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
BIG.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BIG.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BIG.V Distribution of Daily % Changes