Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.94% | 6.38% | -42.50% | 3.48% | -11.76% | -23.81% | -11.25% | 38.03% | -20.41% | -5.13% | ||
| 2025 | 1.90% | 0.93% | 10.19% | -4.20% | 9.65% | 21.60% | 6.58% | 3.09% | 40.72% | -11.49% | -0.96% | -19.90% |
| 2024 | 5.63% | -13.33% | 0.00% | -8.46% | 6.72% | -8.66% | -6.03% | 15.60% | 13.49% | -3.50% | -15.22% | -10.26% |
| 2023 | 24.82% | -1.75% | -0.60% | 22.75% | -0.49% | -16.18% | -12.28% | 15.33% | -21.39% | -2.94% | 31.82% | -18.39% |
| 2022 | 6.56% | 18.46% | 22.73% | -0.53% | -8.51% | -6.98% | -13.75% | -8.70% | -6.35% | 10.17% | -8.46% | 15.13% |
| 2021 | -18.18% | 11.11% | 140.00% | 0.00% | 22.92% | 23.73% | 8.22% | 145.57% | 18.56% | 13.04% | -3.85% | -2.40% |
| 2020 | 16.67% | -14.29% | 83.33% | -36.36% | 42.86% | 60.00% | 25.00% | -10.00% | 33.33% | -8.33% | 0.00% | |
| Avg | 5.78% | 5.50% | 16.50% | 13.77% | -2.55% | 4.65% | 4.50% | 33.42% | 2.09% | 6.44% | -0.83% | -5.97% |
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +33.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -6.0% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +40.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +27.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -108.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
ASE.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ASE.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ASE.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ASE.V Distribution of Daily % Changes