Seasonality
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Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -2.5% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.29% | 17.69% | 17.39% | -10.70% | -2.59% | 6.14% | 13.21% | 8.70% | -5.66% | -1.42% | ||
| 2025 | -1.75% | -6.53% | 12.66% | 4.64% | 9.06% | 8.22% | -5.44% | 1.69% | 13.43% | -2.69% | -6.77% | 18.14% |
| 2024 | -11.97% | -1.89% | -26.42% | 17.94% | 3.54% | -2.80% | 3.62% | 3.49% | 5.25% | -6.37% | -10.10% | 20.94% |
| 2023 | -8.24% | -5.80% | 13.85% | 14.86% | 7.26% | 21.19% | -5.59% | -1.60% | -8.19% | -4.76% | -17.38% | -2.20% |
| 2022 | 3.73% | -1.35% | 26.95% | -1.28% | 36.48% | -17.78% | 16.78% | -4.31% | 6.72% | -8.43% | 7.02% | 12.05% |
| 2021 | 2.78% | 10.81% | 14.63% | -5.32% | 3.37% | 7.61% | 1.01% | 10.00% | 37.15% | 8.05% | -6.83% | -2.99% |
| 2020 | 5.26% | -25.00% | -3.33% | 18.97% | 10.14% | 5.26% | -25.00% | 0.00% | 10.00% | 28.79% | -15.29% | |
| Avg | -2.53% | 2.60% | 4.87% | 2.40% | 10.87% | 4.68% | 4.12% | -1.00% | 6.96% | -0.70% | -0.88% | 5.11% |
ALV.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ALV.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALV.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALV.V Distribution of Daily % Changes