Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
ALDE.V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALDE.V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +12.8% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -8.5% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +28.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -30.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.45% | -0.29% | -34.10% | 13.16% | 21.71% | -16.56% | 7.44% | 8.35% | -10.82% | 19.49% | ||
| 2025 | -5.79% | 2.79% | 2.72% | -8.99% | 5.23% | 28.73% | -8.58% | 16.43% | 3.23% | 48.44% | -7.37% | 4.26% |
| 2024 | -10.11% | -13.75% | 23.19% | 0.00% | 29.41% | -10.91% | -1.02% | 0.00% | 9.28% | 51.89% | 36.65% | -13.64% |
| 2023 | 16.67% | -1.10% | 3.33% | -20.43% | 5.41% | 14.10% | -4.49% | 4.71% | -4.49% | -8.24% | 8.97% | 4.71% |
| 2022 | 20.24% | -0.99% | -8.00% | -13.04% | -8.75% | -4.11% | 10.00% | -9.09% | -4.29% | 17.91% | -1.27% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | 38.46% | -11.11% | -17.86% | 8.70% | 38.00% | -11.59% | 11.48% | 1.47% | 2.90% | -9.86% | -1.56% | 33.33% |
| 2020 | -35.00% | -11.54% | 8.70% | -4.00% | 29.17% | 19.35% | 45.95% | -17.59% | -23.60% | 7.35% | 24.66% | |
| Avg | 9.00% | -8.49% | -6.04% | -1.70% | 12.43% | 4.12% | 4.88% | 9.69% | -3.11% | 12.76% | 7.13% | 8.89% |
ALDE.V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALDE.V Distribution of Daily % Changes