Seasonality
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Seasonality
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XLY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XLY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.90% | -11.11% | 8.33% | 11.54% | 3.45% | 16.67% | 6.94% | 22.14% | 10.63% | -5.65% | ||
| 2025 | 12.50% | 66.67% | 6.67% | 0.00% | 6.25% | 17.65% | 30.00% | 17.69% | -5.23% | 10.34% | -3.13% | -6.45% |
| 2024 | 50.00% | 0.00% | 233.33% | 10.00% | -27.27% | -25.00% | 16.67% | 28.57% | -22.22% | 28.57% | -11.11% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | 0.00% | -25.00% | 33.33% | -25.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.33% | -25.00% | 0.00% | -33.33% |
| 2022 | -8.11% | -8.82% | 6.45% | -18.18% | -11.11% | -37.50% | -2.67% | -31.51% | -10.00% | 0.00% | -44.44% | -20.00% |
| 2021 | 15.69% | 15.25% | 11.76% | 0.00% | -3.95% | -28.77% | -1.92% | 7.84% | -10.91% | -12.24% | 4.65% | -17.78% |
| 2020 | -32.26% | -11.90% | 1.35% | 8.00% | -28.40% | -15.52% | -34.69% | -18.75% | 76.92% | 34.78% | -17.74% | |
| Avg | 10.53% | 0.68% | 41.14% | -2.90% | -3.52% | -12.19% | 4.79% | 1.43% | -3.31% | 13.10% | -3.21% | -15.88% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +41.1% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -15.9% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +52.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +52.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
XLY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XLY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years