Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.26% | 8.06% | -24.73% | 7.08% | 8.99% | -22.82% | -10.69% | 23.24% | -10.00% | -24.44% | ||
| 2025 | -0.66% | 1.33% | 7.89% | -7.32% | 1.32% | 8.44% | 1.20% | 15.38% | 41.54% | 6.52% | 14.97% | 8.58% |
| 2024 | -14.86% | 16.78% | 18.97% | -0.97% | -11.22% | -14.29% | -1.28% | 1.30% | 3.21% | -8.07% | 6.08% | -3.82% |
| 2023 | 0.83% | -11.52% | 14.42% | -6.10% | -9.96% | -1.92% | 2.94% | -4.76% | -7.00% | -8.60% | -1.18% | 4.17% |
| 2022 | -5.50% | 20.11% | 29.96% | -16.95% | -13.47% | -16.51% | 2.82% | -8.24% | 4.79% | 1.14% | 23.16% | 10.55% |
| 2021 | -5.73% | 37.16% | -22.66% | 13.38% | 76.40% | -21.66% | -2.44% | -11.25% | -11.27% | 9.52% | -14.49% | 12.99% |
| 2020 | -17.98% | -23.29% | 62.50% | 20.88% | 7.27% | 32.20% | 4.49% | -0.61% | -8.02% | 11.41% | -5.42% | |
| Avg | -1.28% | 7.71% | 0.08% | 7.38% | 10.42% | -8.78% | 3.54% | 2.88% | 2.95% | -1.25% | 6.66% | 4.51% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.4% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -8.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -37.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
WRN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WRN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WRN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
WRN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes