Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +13.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -1.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +22.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +17.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +33.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.89% | 23.17% | 6.81% | 3.44% | 30.42% | 2.43% | -25.58% | -21.73% | 18.90% | -13.42% | ||
| 2025 | 4.88% | -14.73% | -19.55% | 25.05% | 21.39% | 10.92% | 38.37% | 21.42% | 13.25% | 17.93% | -0.85% | -10.91% |
| 2024 | -3.17% | 20.22% | 13.64% | -6.60% | 23.55% | 8.49% | -3.51% | 15.07% | -3.60% | 5.97% | -8.59% | 13.71% |
| 2023 | 8.59% | -16.46% | 30.30% | -11.34% | -0.33% | 7.24% | 13.50% | -4.86% | -0.57% | -5.71% | 0.00% | 14.55% |
| 2022 | -3.78% | 1.75% | 3.00% | -18.33% | -19.39% | -12.66% | 29.71% | -6.15% | -0.60% | 41.32% | 27.12% | -3.00% |
| 2021 | 23.39% | 29.95% | -2.75% | -10.43% | -27.18% | -1.67% | -9.83% | 7.52% | -3.50% | 11.59% | -25.00% | 3.03% |
| 2020 | -3.32% | -24.02% | 9.68% | 0.59% | -5.85% | 8.07% | 5.17% | -2.19% | 8.94% | 27.18% | 18.95% | |
| Avg | 10.97% | 5.80% | 1.06% | -1.22% | 4.15% | 1.27% | 7.25% | 2.35% | 3.10% | 13.34% | 3.31% | 6.06% |
VNP.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VNP.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VNP.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VNP.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes