Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +14.8% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -6.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +31.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +31.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -54.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -19.25% | 6.24% | -0.94% | -2.84% | 0.97% | 6.11% | 10.30% | 1.65% | 1.41% | -8.85% | ||
| 2025 | 52.22% | -8.57% | 8.33% | 4.62% | -11.76% | 0.37% | 2.04% | 1.10% | 3.59% | 5.13% | 10.87% | 3.15% |
| 2024 | -2.24% | -1.53% | 13.37% | 3.25% | -8.61% | 8.51% | 1.84% | 0.82% | 33.33% | 40.73% | -4.68% | -1.82% |
| 2023 | 13.86% | 109.54% | 0.16% | -0.24% | 0.94% | -0.55% | -1.25% | -18.19% | 7.48% | -47.34% | -7.55% | -0.56% |
| 2022 | 11.59% | 5.57% | 7.14% | -15.94% | -1.03% | -3.25% | -10.84% | -4.73% | -14.33% | -15.56% | -1.57% | 6.37% |
| 2021 | 16.43% | -4.29% | 33.46% | 1.06% | -6.37% | 4.97% | -11.03% | -10.43% | -1.70% | 8.02% | -2.17% | -4.21% |
| 2020 | -3.05% | -31.25% | 27.35% | -17.70% | 17.13% | -5.10% | -0.18% | -5.39% | 8.73% | 5.76% | 15.51% | |
| Avg | 12.10% | 14.85% | 4.33% | 2.46% | -6.22% | 4.76% | -2.01% | -4.28% | 3.48% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 3.08% |
VLN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VLN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VLN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VLN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes