Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.4% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +54.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.24% | 11.32% | 31.95% | -4.33% | -17.07% | -11.99% | 25.70% | 6.53% | -8.22% | 21.99% | ||
| 2025 | -1.03% | -8.22% | -4.14% | -28.58% | 7.69% | 12.38% | 14.39% | -8.80% | 5.98% | -3.50% | 23.07% | -10.56% |
| 2024 | -9.52% | 4.36% | 12.51% | -5.82% | 6.31% | -9.97% | -1.39% | -6.60% | -3.93% | -1.67% | 10.71% | -4.97% |
| 2023 | -14.89% | -10.39% | -3.53% | -2.17% | -13.88% | 12.54% | 11.26% | 7.07% | 1.47% | 0.70% | -14.34% | -6.26% |
| 2022 | 24.40% | 19.82% | 11.01% | -4.65% | 9.31% | -10.25% | 35.14% | 5.95% | -15.46% | 7.51% | -16.36% | -9.55% |
| 2021 | -1.41% | 42.32% | 14.55% | -0.11% | 2.63% | 16.03% | -17.40% | -6.13% | 48.69% | 7.19% | -4.92% | 24.61% |
| 2020 | -28.46% | -66.89% | 58.56% | 0.15% | -11.95% | -9.60% | -5.13% | -39.96% | 5.79% | 58.36% | 9.02% | |
| Avg | 2.13% | 4.39% | -0.65% | 1.84% | -0.69% | -0.46% | 8.30% | -1.01% | -1.63% | 2.67% | 9.42% | 0.38% |
VET.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VET.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VET.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VET.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes