Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +11.5% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.4% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +16.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -43.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.19% | -4.15% | -10.82% | 18.93% | -8.98% | -13.90% | -10.42% | 15.12% | -21.21% | -25.00% | ||
| 2025 | -3.05% | -14.47% | -28.68% | 8.25% | 6.67% | 27.68% | 17.48% | 13.69% | 28.80% | -2.85% | -23.43% | 2.73% |
| 2024 | 22.77% | -12.90% | 0.00% | 8.80% | 3.83% | -21.72% | -12.57% | -7.78% | 4.55% | 8.07% | 5.17% | -10.38% |
| 2023 | 12.74% | -15.82% | -6.04% | -11.43% | -0.81% | 11.38% | 2.19% | 28.57% | 14.44% | 10.68% | -3.95% | -7.76% |
| 2022 | 0.00% | 23.38% | 6.32% | -12.87% | -11.93% | -12.90% | 14.07% | 18.18% | -15.93% | 16.34% | 0.56% | -12.29% |
| 2021 | 0.96% | 37.14% | -2.08% | 0.00% | 25.53% | -1.13% | -16.57% | 13.01% | 33.94% | -1.36% | -12.84% | -18.95% |
| 2020 | -12.12% | -3.45% | 51.79% | -5.88% | -12.50% | 7.14% | 0.00% | -12.00% | -9.09% | 15.00% | 50.72% | |
| Avg | 10.27% | 0.15% | -6.39% | 9.07% | 1.20% | -3.30% | 0.19% | 11.54% | 4.65% | 3.63% | -3.25% | 0.68% |
URE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
URE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
URE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
URE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes