Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -2.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.44% | -4.46% | 1.56% | 10.02% | 1.08% | 8.93% | -2.81% | 6.22% | -2.97% | -2.45% | ||
| 2025 | -5.41% | 0.00% | 0.68% | 0.40% | 8.76% | 18.27% | -3.33% | 8.95% | 3.64% | -6.12% | 0.87% | 5.54% |
| 2024 | 4.32% | -1.92% | -0.51% | 2.28% | 5.38% | -0.34% | -0.17% | 0.98% | 2.23% | -0.27% | 0.82% | 0.95% |
| 2023 | 1.09% | -1.07% | -0.57% | 3.75% | -0.28% | 1.12% | 0.83% | -4.01% | -0.69% | -4.38% | -0.54% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | -0.28% | 5.13% | 1.93% | -1.05% | -2.82% | -12.27% | -0.06% | 5.00% | 1.49% | -2.94% | 3.33% | 2.94% |
| 2021 | 12.28% | -4.17% | 25.25% | 2.26% | 24.23% | -21.93% | -13.09% | -6.66% | 0.12% | 4.39% | -4.71% | 4.77% |
| 2020 | -2.01% | -33.25% | 2.86% | 8.00% | 14.02% | 0.36% | 1.44% | -1.25% | 1.89% | 49.61% | -6.51% | |
| Avg | 1.43% | -1.22% | -0.70% | 2.93% | 6.34% | 1.11% | -2.61% | 1.70% | 0.37% | -1.24% | 8.23% | 1.28% |
TWC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TWC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TWC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TWC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes