Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +9.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -2.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -70.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
TVK.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TVK.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TVK.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.25% | 4.26% | -9.96% | 4.79% | 10.98% | -24.38% | -1.60% | 2.79% | -5.76% | -3.03% | ||
| 2025 | 19.02% | -14.99% | 25.83% | 1.08% | 17.79% | 0.02% | 0.96% | -15.55% | -3.26% | -2.53% | -6.55% | 29.81% |
| 2024 | 9.83% | 14.69% | 7.91% | 20.38% | 2.88% | -2.52% | 13.27% | 18.06% | -0.42% | 3.77% | 14.83% | -2.22% |
| 2023 | -1.41% | -2.87% | 4.57% | -2.00% | -1.56% | 9.78% | 18.31% | 3.32% | 7.55% | -13.84% | 13.04% | 19.95% |
| 2022 | -11.14% | -2.62% | 6.18% | -11.33% | 3.14% | 0.33% | 3.35% | 6.11% | -2.56% | -3.07% | 7.00% | 9.32% |
| 2021 | -1.13% | 9.56% | -2.72% | 7.53% | -1.39% | 9.98% | 2.94% | 8.30% | 12.67% | 6.83% | 10.79% | -4.06% |
| 2020 | 10.79% | -15.50% | 12.87% | 6.19% | -6.44% | 0.99% | -4.12% | 3.69% | -4.37% | 8.03% | 3.02% | |
| Avg | 0.15% | 2.69% | 2.33% | 4.76% | 5.43% | -1.89% | 5.46% | 2.70% | 1.70% | -2.20% | 7.86% | 9.30% |
TVK.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data