Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +12.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.8% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +23.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.7% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +65.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
TVE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.41% | 10.64% | 13.27% | 10.78% | 0.16% | -2.76% | 8.41% | 1.12% | -2.44% | 14.26% | ||
| 2025 | -7.67% | -2.89% | 2.65% | -18.01% | 22.77% | 10.82% | 12.90% | -0.68% | 12.48% | 3.19% | 25.57% | 2.34% |
| 2024 | 1.07% | 9.16% | 14.69% | -2.54% | 3.30% | -2.52% | 10.28% | -3.11% | -0.92% | 6.49% | 7.79% | 7.70% |
| 2023 | 8.37% | -9.69% | -8.69% | -4.98% | -9.83% | -4.07% | 12.88% | 1.48% | 7.20% | 7.78% | -11.85% | -16.23% |
| 2022 | 28.28% | 4.84% | -3.73% | 1.58% | 5.13% | -17.82% | 3.00% | -5.63% | -9.29% | 38.80% | -1.07% | -13.64% |
| 2021 | 4.72% | 61.65% | 10.23% | 8.44% | 3.50% | -3.38% | 4.67% | -10.04% | 31.82% | 12.85% | -4.72% | 12.24% |
| 2020 | -23.67% | -62.02% | 63.27% | -8.75% | 21.92% | -7.87% | 14.63% | -23.40% | 6.94% | 23.38% | 33.68% | |
| Avg | 8.36% | 7.15% | -4.80% | 8.36% | 2.33% | 0.31% | 6.32% | -0.32% | 2.21% | 12.68% | 6.52% | 4.35% |
TVE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TVE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TVE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes