Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.65% | 13.76% | -16.53% | -28.02% | 8.05% | -24.22% | -9.84% | 43.64% | 8.23% | -19.88% | ||
| 2025 | 4.55% | -6.52% | 4.65% | -2.22% | 2.27% | 0.00% | 11.11% | 2.00% | 72.55% | 1.14% | 14.61% | 24.51% |
| 2024 | -9.80% | 0.00% | 15.22% | 16.98% | 6.45% | -19.70% | 9.43% | -6.90% | 0.00% | 5.56% | -14.04% | -10.20% |
| 2023 | 44.44% | -15.38% | 18.18% | 13.85% | -16.22% | -4.84% | -11.86% | 1.92% | -5.66% | 10.00% | -1.82% | -5.56% |
| 2022 | -2.04% | 4.17% | -22.00% | -2.56% | 13.16% | 11.63% | 22.92% | 8.47% | -15.63% | -5.56% | -11.76% | 0.00% |
| 2021 | 15.48% | -8.25% | -15.73% | -6.67% | -11.43% | 3.23% | -6.25% | -16.67% | 30.00% | -10.77% | -12.07% | -3.92% |
| 2020 | -10.81% | 12.12% | 0.00% | 58.11% | 0.00% | 5.98% | -12.10% | -14.68% | -10.75% | -2.41% | 3.70% | |
| Avg | 20.71% | -3.29% | -0.58% | -1.24% | 8.63% | -4.84% | 3.07% | 2.91% | 10.69% | -1.73% | -4.58% | 1.42% |
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +20.7% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -4.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +16.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
TRX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TRX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TRX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TRX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes