Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +3.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -1.4% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.03% | 6.71% | 0.32% | 2.01% | 0.79% | -5.30% | 6.28% | 1.61% | -10.50% | 7.06% | ||
| 2025 | -10.05% | -1.28% | -0.62% | -4.95% | 9.21% | 3.37% | 0.35% | -2.72% | 4.50% | -3.60% | 13.57% | -1.43% |
| 2024 | 0.31% | 3.09% | 12.93% | 2.20% | 0.57% | 6.20% | 8.29% | 2.73% | -1.92% | 3.33% | 4.23% | 1.26% |
| 2023 | -2.08% | -6.52% | 0.39% | 1.57% | 6.23% | 1.50% | 3.97% | 1.26% | 0.07% | -1.07% | -8.21% | 1.28% |
| 2022 | 1.51% | 9.60% | 6.58% | 8.90% | 3.87% | -13.11% | 10.39% | -7.76% | 2.00% | 10.66% | 2.21% | -9.01% |
| 2021 | 4.04% | 2.05% | 2.27% | -0.48% | 0.55% | 20.16% | -7.69% | -1.31% | 10.69% | 5.28% | -2.10% | 1.97% |
| 2020 | 7.63% | -2.21% | ||||||||||
| Avg | -0.04% | 2.27% | 3.64% | 1.54% | 3.54% | 2.13% | 3.60% | -1.03% | 0.81% | 2.92% | 2.89% | -1.36% |
TPZ.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TPZ.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TPZ.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TPZ.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes