Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
TOY.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +11.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -7.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -11.0% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +3.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.31% | 3.44% | -7.01% | 16.09% | -9.50% | 9.77% | 0.98% | -2.72% | 2.37% | 3.98% | ||
| 2025 | -9.15% | -10.92% | -11.81% | 1.33% | -1.56% | -3.21% | -1.34% | -0.83% | -14.55% | 8.43% | -1.15% | -6.92% |
| 2024 | -0.80% | -6.56% | 7.46% | -13.21% | -3.39% | -2.58% | 12.13% | 2.15% | -5.04% | -3.54% | 10.69% | 4.20% |
| 2023 | 4.92% | 5.78% | 1.76% | 2.61% | -12.06% | 3.57% | 0.31% | 2.25% | -4.84% | -2.93% | -0.45% | 5.82% |
| 2022 | -8.84% | 6.22% | -7.26% | 7.34% | -2.21% | -7.04% | 13.62% | -3.42% | -9.70% | 1.27% | -18.50% | -2.71% |
| 2021 | -6.24% | 3.86% | 24.21% | 18.67% | -1.56% | 17.64% | -0.81% | 0.94% | -14.85% | 4.21% | 8.03% | 3.59% |
| 2020 | -5.50% | -54.75% | 48.74% | -7.00% | 30.97% | 1.83% | 24.74% | -7.77% | -6.12% | 11.38% | -3.46% | |
| Avg | -3.74% | -0.53% | -6.77% | 11.65% | -5.33% | 7.02% | 3.82% | 3.30% | -7.77% | 0.22% | 1.66% | 0.09% |
TOY.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TOY.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TOY.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes