Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +21.4% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -12.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +33.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -64.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.32% | -12.70% | -16.22% | 19.36% | 7.02% | -22.50% | -11.90% | 14.87% | -12.35% | -34.09% | ||
| 2025 | 10.91% | 12.57% | 6.80% | 8.64% | -31.38% | 12.80% | 18.38% | 5.94% | 27.59% | 110.47% | -4.49% | -0.17% |
| 2024 | 31.03% | -23.68% | 15.52% | -17.91% | 27.27% | 0.00% | 32.86% | -24.73% | -4.29% | 29.85% | 83.91% | 3.13% |
| 2023 | 12.33% | -2.44% | -10.00% | 13.89% | -18.29% | 10.45% | -4.05% | -7.04% | 0.00% | -6.06% | -9.68% | 3.57% |
| 2022 | -6.60% | -37.88% | 4.88% | 6.20% | -10.95% | -14.75% | -17.31% | -2.33% | -3.57% | -7.41% | 4.00% | -6.41% |
| 2021 | 3.94% | 4.17% | -1.82% | 2.96% | 22.30% | -8.82% | -10.65% | -7.22% | -8.95% | 17.09% | -20.80% | -2.30% |
| 2020 | -28.42% | -5.88% | 28.65% | 6.07% | 3.05% | 0.37% | 0.74% | -8.79% | -15.66% | 19.05% | 1.60% | |
| Avg | 11.15% | -12.63% | -0.96% | 8.83% | 0.29% | -2.82% | 1.10% | -2.82% | -1.48% | 21.38% | 12.00% | -0.10% |
TMQ.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TMQ.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TMQ.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TMQ.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes