Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
TLO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +144.3% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -2.1% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +151.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +151.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +1065.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 891.67% | 41.18% | -25.00% | 17.14% | -7.32% | -17.54% | -10.82% | 50.70% | 18.47% | -17.59% | ||
| 2025 | -11.11% | 0.00% | 50.00% | -8.33% | 81.82% | 30.00% | 11.54% | 37.93% | 10.00% | -13.64% | 26.32% | 25.00% |
| 2024 | -22.22% | 7.14% | -6.67% | 21.43% | 11.76% | -26.32% | -7.14% | -23.08% | 0.00% | -20.00% | 12.50% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | -12.00% | 0.00% | -18.18% | -5.56% | -11.76% | 16.67% | -20.00% | -7.14% | 0.00% | -11.54% | -17.39% | -5.26% |
| 2022 | 11.48% | 1.47% | 23.19% | -17.65% | -18.57% | -10.53% | 11.76% | -8.77% | -7.69% | 10.42% | -16.98% | 13.64% |
| 2021 | 7.84% | 16.36% | 10.94% | -5.63% | -8.96% | -14.75% | 7.69% | -5.36% | 11.32% | 10.17% | -1.54% | -4.69% |
| 2020 | -28.57% | -20.00% | 25.00% | 20.00% | 33.33% | 68.75% | -11.11% | 4.17% | 12.00% | 14.29% | 59.38% | |
| Avg | 144.28% | 5.37% | 2.04% | 3.77% | 9.57% | 1.55% | 8.83% | 4.74% | 5.18% | -2.10% | 2.87% | 14.68% |
TLO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TLO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TLO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes