Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +13.2% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -10.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +18.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +18.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
TLG.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TLG.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.29% | 24.31% | -32.44% | 3.95% | 32.28% | -20.10% | -2.99% | 37.65% | -14.35% | -21.47% | ||
| 2025 | 23.33% | -13.51% | 43.75% | 21.74% | 7.14% | 18.33% | -16.90% | 40.68% | 53.01% | 13.39% | 4.86% | 3.97% |
| 2024 | 2.08% | 12.24% | -7.27% | 31.37% | -40.30% | -10.00% | 8.33% | -5.13% | -8.11% | -11.76% | 6.67% | -6.25% |
| 2023 | 50.00% | -9.72% | 4.62% | 7.35% | -27.40% | -13.21% | 4.35% | -18.75% | 10.26% | -18.60% | 22.86% | 11.63% |
| 2022 | -5.41% | 11.43% | 15.38% | -18.89% | -13.70% | -14.29% | -9.26% | -10.20% | -6.82% | -12.20% | 47.22% | -9.43% |
| 2021 | -14.75% | -8.65% | 11.58% | 2.83% | 10.09% | -25.00% | 0.00% | -6.67% | -14.29% | 13.89% | -6.10% | -3.90% |
| 2020 | 2.90% | -7.04% | 43.94% | 21.05% | -10.43% | 38.84% | 11.89% | -21.88% | -1.60% | -8.94% | 8.93% | |
| Avg | 11.76% | 2.71% | 4.08% | 13.18% | -1.55% | -10.67% | 3.19% | 7.07% | -0.31% | -2.81% | 11.09% | 0.82% |
TLG.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TLG.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes