Seasonality
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Seasonality
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TIH.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TIH.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +6.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -2.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +7.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +7.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.46% | 22.05% | -7.75% | 8.45% | 7.66% | 2.82% | -9.58% | -5.03% | 13.67% | -13.07% | ||
| 2025 | 1.98% | 4.81% | -6.86% | 3.56% | 2.03% | 3.29% | 14.79% | 2.21% | 8.00% | 9.05% | -3.03% | 1.94% |
| 2024 | 1.43% | 5.85% | 4.98% | -3.34% | -5.52% | 2.16% | 6.00% | -6.02% | 9.84% | -6.83% | -6.50% | -0.76% |
| 2023 | 8.78% | 5.88% | -1.05% | -1.31% | -4.09% | 4.06% | 3.23% | -1.34% | 0.19% | -5.62% | 4.88% | 6.43% |
| 2022 | -6.18% | 0.14% | 10.69% | -4.57% | -0.80% | -6.90% | 3.62% | -5.74% | -5.05% | 8.88% | -2.22% | -4.20% |
| 2021 | -3.77% | 7.99% | 4.12% | 1.88% | 9.74% | 0.74% | -2.38% | 0.62% | -0.00% | 4.14% | -2.55% | 6.92% |
| 2020 | -2.63% | -6.67% | 6.08% | 1.56% | 1.86% | 8.39% | 1.08% | 8.41% | 4.10% | 7.10% | 0.75% | |
| Avg | 1.12% | 6.30% | -0.36% | 1.54% | 1.51% | 1.15% | 3.44% | -2.03% | 5.01% | 2.29% | -0.39% | 1.85% |
TIH.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TIH.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes