Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.68% | -6.87% | 13.20% | -1.37% | 3.47% | -9.24% | -11.90% | 5.74% | -3.62% | 14.38% | ||
| 2025 | -9.94% | -1.73% | 3.81% | -13.09% | 5.93% | 6.28% | 26.16% | 4.75% | 4.51% | -14.91% | 14.86% | -0.58% |
| 2024 | 6.31% | -5.02% | 0.87% | 0.72% | 7.18% | 8.66% | 4.56% | 0.40% | -4.81% | -3.14% | 5.84% | 5.88% |
| 2023 | -6.01% | -0.29% | -9.08% | 2.92% | -1.58% | 14.55% | 17.28% | 15.46% | -1.92% | 0.86% | -12.15% | 1.02% |
| 2022 | 28.52% | -4.21% | 9.09% | 20.43% | 3.35% | -20.30% | 2.71% | -8.44% | -17.29% | 26.13% | 10.50% | -8.50% |
| 2021 | 1.79% | 10.53% | 9.52% | 1.93% | 12.32% | 12.66% | -1.87% | -4.96% | 18.88% | 17.23% | -15.85% | -5.14% |
| 2020 | -16.35% | -48.28% | 28.89% | 43.10% | -1.20% | 10.98% | 23.08% | 2.68% | 0.87% | 13.79% | 27.27% | |
| Avg | 6.39% | -3.42% | -2.98% | 5.78% | 10.54% | 1.63% | 6.85% | 5.15% | -0.23% | 4.51% | 2.83% | 3.33% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.4% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -8.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
TCW.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TCW.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TCW.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
TCW.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data