Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +8.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +78.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.69% | 0.69% | 56.42% | 1.72% | -0.94% | 9.16% | -6.15% | 2.43% | -3.47% | 13.58% | ||
| 2025 | -0.36% | -5.09% | 7.55% | 7.76% | 13.72% | -1.14% | -7.84% | 5.66% | -2.27% | 0.10% | 4.01% | 10.94% |
| 2024 | 0.37% | 5.99% | 2.58% | -5.68% | 0.22% | 12.12% | 7.80% | 3.01% | 7.03% | -3.05% | -0.87% | 8.91% |
| 2023 | -1.26% | 4.91% | -8.50% | 3.99% | -3.02% | 3.60% | -9.32% | 1.07% | -12.05% | -10.52% | 8.91% | 23.20% |
| 2022 | 5.05% | -3.08% | -13.47% | -7.96% | 0.37% | -5.14% | 7.66% | 1.97% | -1.46% | -3.36% | 8.94% | -9.80% |
| 2021 | 1.16% | 6.58% | 2.17% | 5.24% | -3.31% | 3.42% | 7.07% | -1.09% | -17.61% | -1.48% | -5.05% | 9.13% |
| 2020 | 4.24% | -21.57% | 0.96% | -5.08% | 26.15% | 3.80% | -0.65% | 7.17% | -2.68% | 22.18% | 6.38% | |
| Avg | 1.28% | 2.03% | 3.60% | 0.86% | 0.28% | 6.88% | 0.43% | 1.77% | -3.24% | -3.50% | 6.35% | 8.13% |
TCL-A.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TCL-A.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TCL-A.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TCL-A.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes