Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +12.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.96% | 7.14% | -0.53% | -0.80% | -2.16% | 1.93% | -1.63% | 0.00% | -0.83% | 1.39% | ||
| 2025 | 0.52% | 1.82% | -5.10% | 3.76% | 25.65% | 5.01% | -6.53% | 13.65% | 2.23% | -5.74% | 1.16% | 2.29% |
| 2024 | 3.86% | 6.76% | 2.53% | 4.94% | -0.29% | 18.29% | -2.24% | -3.06% | -1.84% | 2.14% | -1.57% | 2.13% |
| 2023 | 3.00% | 1.94% | -13.33% | -0.37% | 0.37% | -5.49% | 10.47% | 1.75% | 0.00% | -4.83% | 13.34% | -1.72% |
| 2022 | 0.76% | 5.68% | -5.02% | -3.02% | -0.78% | -3.14% | -6.07% | 5.60% | 1.22% | 0.81% | 10.00% | 9.09% |
| 2021 | 13.04% | 26.92% | -11.65% | 11.28% | -5.74% | -12.19% | -2.45% | 4.60% | 4.00% | 1.15% | -17.49% | 20.74% |
| 2020 | -2.61% | -28.57% | 0.00% | 16.25% | 13.98% | 5.66% | 20.54% | -0.74% | 2.99% | 15.22% | 44.65% | |
| Avg | 3.20% | 6.81% | -8.81% | 2.26% | 4.76% | 2.63% | -0.40% | 6.16% | 0.58% | -0.58% | 3.44% | 12.86% |
TBL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TBL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TBL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TBL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes