Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +5.3% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.23% | 8.15% | -2.45% | -7.44% | 16.07% | 0.20% | -10.50% | -4.50% | 3.11% | -0.46% | ||
| 2025 | -17.81% | -9.99% | -10.35% | -8.49% | 9.65% | 9.55% | 13.48% | 1.58% | 12.69% | 30.41% | -18.03% | -14.29% |
| 2024 | -11.62% | -3.80% | -6.66% | 5.06% | 7.89% | -0.92% | 7.22% | 14.71% | 18.11% | 3.85% | 9.42% | 28.10% |
| 2023 | 6.69% | -13.97% | 6.87% | 2.20% | 8.73% | -5.20% | 8.47% | -3.17% | -8.79% | -14.20% | 9.32% | -0.18% |
| 2022 | -1.85% | -6.30% | 0.54% | 6.49% | 5.01% | 1.87% | -0.20% | -15.55% | -0.97% | -1.72% | 5.14% | -3.58% |
| 2021 | 16.03% | -0.49% | 7.01% | 1.51% | -9.15% | 12.99% | 5.34% | -4.65% | 8.25% | 3.74% | -6.06% | 8.16% |
| 2020 | 1.72% | -26.77% | 11.28% | -1.18% | 0.00% | 8.82% | -3.85% | -2.27% | -3.54% | 14.47% | 7.44% | |
| Avg | -1.39% | -3.53% | -4.54% | 1.52% | 5.29% | 2.64% | 4.66% | -2.20% | 4.30% | 3.09% | 2.38% | 4.28% |
TA.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TA.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TA.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TA.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes