Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +10.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.43% | 38.29% | -21.10% | 9.16% | 7.16% | -17.86% | -9.26% | 32.23% | -11.84% | -24.03% | ||
| 2025 | 5.32% | 12.53% | 8.40% | -7.21% | 4.85% | 7.16% | 4.51% | 10.12% | 32.23% | 3.64% | 20.88% | 4.55% |
| 2024 | -7.54% | 2.19% | 35.28% | -0.91% | 24.49% | -15.53% | 11.79% | 0.20% | 14.81% | 11.04% | -29.39% | -6.09% |
| 2023 | 16.33% | -9.29% | 22.38% | -3.50% | -17.54% | -7.45% | 9.55% | -14.77% | -10.23% | -2.53% | 27.62% | -11.76% |
| 2022 | -11.42% | 12.17% | -2.98% | -14.91% | -10.57% | -7.68% | 6.58% | -12.06% | 8.03% | 2.79% | 13.76% | 5.85% |
| 2021 | -3.06% | -10.30% | -16.35% | 4.36% | 21.52% | -13.21% | -8.82% | -10.48% | -12.97% | 8.49% | -1.24% | -8.33% |
| 2020 | -38.03% | 7.96% | 13.23% | 16.67% | 19.55% | 33.75% | 15.96% | -14.65% | -6.56% | -13.31% | 9.52% | |
| Avg | 3.18% | 1.08% | 4.80% | 0.03% | 6.65% | -5.00% | 6.87% | 3.03% | 0.77% | 2.81% | 3.05% | -1.04% |
SVM.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SVM.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SVM.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SVM.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes