Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.2% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.21% | -0.20% | -11.05% | 0.00% | -3.18% | 9.46% | 3.00% | -9.79% | -4.55% | 2.42% | ||
| 2025 | -7.36% | 10.68% | -3.14% | -3.58% | 9.81% | -1.14% | 13.45% | 3.02% | 8.22% | -4.26% | -0.20% | -5.41% |
| 2024 | 2.68% | 0.37% | -4.21% | -8.33% | -4.65% | 3.39% | 0.64% | 3.20% | 6.88% | -21.28% | 0.25% | -3.36% |
| 2023 | 6.81% | -4.04% | -0.44% | -5.70% | 3.80% | -2.61% | -16.41% | -6.34% | -1.24% | -4.87% | 8.60% | 12.06% |
| 2022 | -12.07% | 10.88% | -0.67% | -4.01% | -3.28% | -8.44% | 9.61% | -6.15% | -8.80% | 12.41% | 4.80% | -8.04% |
| 2021 | -0.99% | 2.25% | 13.77% | -5.38% | 6.82% | 2.40% | 0.83% | 15.26% | 10.61% | 0.32% | 1.45% | 14.68% |
| 2020 | -9.09% | -14.91% | 4.84% | 14.19% | -7.71% | -2.51% | -3.22% | 6.41% | 4.69% | 16.72% | 3.40% | |
| Avg | -0.79% | 1.55% | -2.95% | -3.17% | 3.36% | -0.66% | 1.23% | -0.58% | 2.50% | -2.16% | 5.27% | 2.22% |
SVI.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SVI.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SVI.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SVI.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes