Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +4.1% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -2.0% with only a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +8.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.5% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.69% | -10.00% | 2.81% | 11.77% | 11.87% | -6.37% | 2.18% | -9.65% | -2.71% | -2.01% | ||
| 2025 | -5.79% | 13.62% | -5.34% | 7.62% | 12.57% | 3.02% | -13.28% | 4.91% | 9.30% | 1.14% | -6.89% | -4.64% |
| 2024 | -4.26% | 3.58% | 7.55% | -7.53% | 0.75% | -3.72% | -10.03% | -3.13% | -1.48% | -11.29% | 0.30% | -2.77% |
| 2023 | -3.68% | 3.91% | 0.73% | -9.78% | -4.38% | 0.64% | 4.11% | 3.34% | 2.25% | -9.16% | 6.22% | -0.92% |
| 2022 | -0.15% | -11.06% | 0.96% | -0.79% | 9.88% | -7.83% | 2.38% | -4.24% | -8.53% | 4.01% | -0.96% | 10.70% |
| 2021 | -0.17% | 9.91% | 7.85% | 6.05% | 1.87% | 0.59% | 3.08% | -4.97% | -8.44% | 2.22% | -2.77% | -2.02% |
| 2020 | -12.67% | -16.98% | 20.37% | -3.75% | 18.32% | 5.48% | 4.02% | -2.16% | 1.29% | 3.14% | 0.66% | |
| Avg | -1.73% | -0.39% | -0.35% | 3.96% | 4.12% | 0.66% | -0.87% | -1.39% | -1.68% | -1.97% | -0.16% | 0.17% |
SPB.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SPB.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SPB.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SPB.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes