Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +8.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -2.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.77% | -3.88% | -3.67% | 11.78% | 8.38% | 0.00% | -3.68% | 13.92% | 0.00% | 0.23% | ||
| 2025 | 2.50% | 0.77% | -0.64% | -17.95% | 1.56% | 1.85% | 5.07% | 4.67% | 0.00% | 2.75% | -6.15% | 5.84% |
| 2024 | 2.82% | -3.37% | -7.47% | 1.75% | 7.59% | 8.97% | -2.94% | 3.03% | -4.41% | 0.00% | 6.15% | 10.14% |
| 2023 | 3.86% | -0.45% | -2.39% | -8.26% | 6.50% | -0.15% | 2.67% | -0.77% | -4.62% | -3.55% | -1.34% | 5.08% |
| 2022 | -5.93% | 0.34% | 0.26% | -2.32% | -2.37% | -2.53% | -4.16% | -2.20% | -9.39% | -5.63% | 12.46% | -0.31% |
| 2021 | 52.30% | 8.68% | 6.94% | 8.77% | 5.75% | 7.27% | 2.63% | -1.26% | 1.27% | -1.79% | 5.74% | 1.23% |
| 2020 | -8.47% | -32.10% | 0.01% | 7.63% | 7.69% | -5.10% | 12.40% | -0.74% | 0.19% | 10.91% | 16.00% | |
| Avg | 8.63% | -0.91% | -5.58% | -0.89% | 5.00% | 3.30% | -0.79% | 4.25% | -2.55% | -1.34% | 4.63% | 6.33% |
SEC.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SEC.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SEC.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SEC.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes