Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +15.0% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.1% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +19.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +19.8% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 205 of the year, the current YTD return is +55.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.34% | 19.54% | 18.72% | 7.31% | -16.13% | -2.14% | 3.93% | 9.92% | -4.82% | 18.47% | ||
| 2025 | 10.14% | -14.47% | 2.77% | -19.16% | 14.07% | 23.70% | 22.83% | 4.27% | 10.86% | 16.08% | 20.54% | -4.23% |
| 2024 | 4.36% | 3.22% | 18.07% | 6.33% | 6.45% | -6.06% | 0.74% | -2.71% | -6.58% | -8.13% | 4.42% | -2.54% |
| 2023 | 0.54% | -17.56% | 13.80% | 9.01% | -3.12% | -12.90% | -6.75% | -2.77% | -4.03% | 10.12% | -32.29% | -1.32% |
| 2022 | 33.00% | 10.33% | 11.87% | 20.61% | 22.93% | -14.87% | 7.60% | -0.45% | -22.57% | 22.22% | 22.89% | 0.30% |
| 2021 | 15.44% | 18.31% | -2.95% | 11.39% | 11.59% | 22.81% | -22.72% | -4.94% | 21.67% | 18.92% | -15.76% | 10.56% |
| 2020 | -14.29% | -33.33% | -25.00% | 0.00% | -11.33% | 4.51% | 5.04% | -16.10% | 26.53% | 1.61% | -5.40% | |
| Avg | 14.97% | 0.72% | 4.14% | 1.50% | 5.11% | -0.11% | 1.45% | 1.20% | -3.08% | 14.29% | 0.24% | -0.44% |
SDE.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SDE.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SDE.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SDE.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes