Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +3.4% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +2.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.56% | 5.99% | 0.28% | -5.36% | 2.70% | -2.28% | -4.02% | 3.12% | -1.08% | 1.17% | ||
| 2025 | -3.36% | 5.55% | -1.85% | 8.34% | -1.71% | 6.16% | 4.27% | 18.31% | -1.11% | 0.27% | 16.88% | 4.82% |
| 2024 | 3.32% | -0.40% | -2.82% | -0.68% | 4.19% | 12.09% | 3.29% | -5.55% | -1.98% | -9.01% | -1.73% | -3.57% |
| 2023 | 9.43% | -0.38% | -3.82% | 0.31% | 0.11% | -14.99% | -6.20% | 4.92% | -2.15% | -1.41% | -5.79% | 2.42% |
| 2022 | -0.04% | 9.02% | -4.12% | -7.26% | -7.39% | 11.11% | 12.68% | 5.44% | -0.73% | 0.70% | 0.72% | 0.90% |
| 2021 | -5.89% | 6.89% | 5.92% | 3.36% | 5.61% | -9.95% | -2.62% | -1.42% | -8.78% | -8.23% | -4.33% | 1.43% |
| 2020 | -8.12% | -9.01% | 3.43% | -3.34% | -3.80% | 1.27% | -0.73% | 3.19% | -2.90% | 11.10% | -0.62% | |
| Avg | 0.48% | 2.65% | -2.20% | 0.31% | 0.02% | -0.24% | 1.24% | 3.44% | -1.80% | -3.43% | 2.81% | 0.90% |
SAP.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SAP.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SAP.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SAP.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes