Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Dec is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Dec averages +34.4% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -7.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +43.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.8% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -42.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.41% | 16.62% | -28.23% | -5.15% | 23.64% | -16.61% | -2.26% | 33.08% | -8.38% | -17.03% | ||
| 2025 | 7.81% | 7.25% | 18.92% | 18.18% | 12.50% | 24.79% | 2.74% | 21.33% | 9.34% | 18.09% | 6.38% | 36.00% |
| 2024 | -20.00% | 6.25% | 8.82% | 21.62% | 17.78% | -7.55% | 14.29% | -1.79% | 9.09% | 15.00% | -7.25% | 0.00% |
| 2023 | 5.00% | -19.05% | -17.65% | 50.00% | -4.76% | 40.00% | -7.14% | 0.00% | -15.38% | -13.64% | -5.26% | 122.22% |
| 2022 | -6.25% | 10.00% | 12.12% | -9.46% | -16.42% | -50.00% | -53.57% | 0.00% | -7.69% | 8.33% | 7.69% | 42.86% |
| 2021 | -6.67% | -4.76% | -7.50% | 0.00% | 12.16% | -3.61% | -12.50% | -1.43% | -20.29% | 12.73% | 6.45% | -3.03% |
| 2020 | -21.43% | -21.21% | 92.31% | 10.00% | 40.00% | 10.39% | 11.76% | -15.79% | 1.25% | 2.47% | 8.43% | |
| Avg | -4.09% | -0.73% | -4.96% | 23.93% | 7.84% | 3.86% | -6.87% | 8.99% | -7.02% | 6.96% | 1.75% | 34.41% |
RIO.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RIO.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RIO.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RIO.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes