Seasonality
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Seasonality
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POU.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +13.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +28.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +10.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.39% | 5.35% | 10.22% | 3.66% | -1.70% | -9.89% | 10.96% | 6.96% | -6.97% | 16.09% | ||
| 2025 | -9.11% | 9.04% | 13.31% | -15.82% | 22.05% | 14.01% | -1.44% | -3.94% | 10.31% | 2.59% | 4.88% | 0.70% |
| 2024 | 2.70% | 12.88% | -7.22% | 13.97% | 5.59% | -4.76% | -3.18% | -6.92% | -4.42% | 2.49% | 17.24% | 2.03% |
| 2023 | 11.36% | -2.73% | -0.24% | 8.80% | -10.82% | 1.52% | 8.69% | 0.80% | 3.43% | 3.78% | -19.48% | -2.49% |
| 2022 | 1.86% | 12.78% | 11.29% | -0.22% | 22.03% | -18.42% | 3.87% | -5.55% | -18.22% | 18.71% | 4.43% | -4.17% |
| 2021 | 28.40% | 68.22% | -5.83% | 12.49% | 26.84% | 18.26% | -5.78% | -16.11% | 38.98% | 10.29% | 3.93% | 14.96% |
| 2020 | -29.14% | -73.60% | 68.14% | -15.26% | -1.24% | 18.24% | 40.96% | -21.51% | 7.69% | 70.09% | 31.23% | |
| Avg | 6.93% | 10.91% | -7.44% | 13.00% | 6.96% | -0.07% | 4.48% | 2.31% | 0.23% | 7.59% | 13.52% | 7.04% |
POU.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
POU.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
POU.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes