Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +26.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -18.2% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +34.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +25.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -145.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
PMET.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PMET.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.26% | -12.16% | -18.08% | 34.46% | 18.59% | -17.94% | -29.60% | 21.76% | -14.26% | -28.57% | ||
| 2025 | -14.00% | -18.60% | 2.04% | -5.20% | -13.08% | 18.45% | 54.51% | 4.51% | 1.27% | -5.51% | 34.75% | 6.30% |
| 2024 | -30.71% | 25.29% | -2.20% | -20.88% | 21.14% | -36.14% | -7.95% | -10.74% | -1.65% | -16.31% | -23.78% | 31.58% |
| 2023 | 120.76% | 5.08% | -15.28% | -3.08% | 21.80% | -1.70% | -4.98% | -21.33% | -2.22% | -11.64% | -0.21% | 2.37% |
| 2022 | -4.90% | 44.33% | 105.71% | 79.86% | 61.00% | -35.73% | 11.94% | 136.00% | -18.36% | -12.28% | 47.73% | -11.88% |
| 2021 | 5.00% | 4.76% | -13.64% | -15.79% | 25.00% | 3.33% | 12.90% | 5.71% | 78.38% | -59.09% | 37.04% | 37.84% |
| 2020 | 0.00% | -31.25% | 9.09% | 50.00% | 11.11% | 15.00% | 21.74% | -14.29% | -4.17% | -17.39% | 5.26% | |
| Avg | 15.07% | 6.96% | 3.90% | 11.21% | 26.35% | -8.37% | 7.40% | 22.52% | 4.12% | -18.17% | 13.02% | 11.91% |
PMET.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PMET.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes