Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +9.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.8% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +18.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +61.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.60% | 43.97% | 13.08% | -6.81% | -10.97% | -1.00% | 0.00% | 20.49% | -6.00% | 9.96% | ||
| 2025 | -1.72% | -1.20% | 0.08% | -14.56% | 5.02% | 3.77% | 3.35% | -6.61% | 4.43% | -3.67% | -1.71% | 2.79% |
| 2024 | 15.31% | -3.43% | 2.43% | -0.88% | 3.35% | 0.11% | 16.54% | -6.43% | -6.14% | 2.75% | 4.93% | -2.72% |
| 2023 | 2.57% | -3.89% | -9.27% | -0.59% | -13.46% | 6.13% | 16.34% | 12.34% | -0.28% | -5.03% | 19.29% | -5.51% |
| 2022 | 15.47% | 18.45% | 9.65% | 5.29% | -7.76% | -23.51% | 21.49% | 6.46% | -5.91% | 44.56% | -7.29% | 2.08% |
| 2021 | -1.19% | 13.60% | -1.94% | 26.45% | 10.32% | 17.02% | -8.04% | 9.47% | 7.12% | 4.60% | -12.20% | 2.78% |
| 2020 | -9.92% | -68.81% | 0.00% | 42.65% | 34.02% | -20.00% | 33.65% | 7.91% | -4.00% | 34.03% | 32.41% | |
| Avg | 7.01% | 8.23% | -7.82% | 1.27% | 4.16% | 5.22% | 4.24% | 9.91% | 0.16% | 6.54% | 6.18% | 5.30% |
PHX.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PHX.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PHX.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PHX.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes