Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +11.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +20.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.0% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.27% | 8.95% | 15.70% | -7.45% | -2.78% | -11.58% | 0.07% | 16.59% | -9.83% | 14.92% | ||
| 2025 | -3.61% | -15.34% | -6.76% | -13.78% | 2.83% | 8.73% | 21.00% | 1.88% | -1.41% | 7.35% | 3.52% | 13.08% |
| 2024 | 15.73% | -3.19% | 13.04% | 5.91% | 5.13% | -5.19% | 10.42% | -8.22% | -14.57% | 0.41% | 6.11% | -0.92% |
| 2023 | 2.27% | -26.65% | -10.73% | -2.82% | -15.31% | 13.14% | 35.41% | 1.78% | 2.11% | -11.68% | -2.35% | -8.32% |
| 2022 | 23.65% | 33.82% | 25.36% | -0.19% | 6.34% | -15.94% | 5.53% | -7.52% | -13.37% | 43.72% | 6.87% | -3.44% |
| 2021 | 19.02% | 18.02% | -7.65% | 16.24% | 23.86% | 32.16% | -19.67% | -1.28% | 24.97% | 7.01% | -25.97% | 10.18% |
| 2020 | 6.41% | -73.49% | 70.45% | 1.33% | 35.53% | -17.48% | 8.24% | -9.78% | 12.05% | 35.00% | -16.65% | |
| Avg | 11.22% | 3.15% | -6.36% | 9.77% | 3.06% | 8.12% | 5.04% | 1.64% | -3.12% | 9.81% | 3.86% | -1.01% |
PD.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PD.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PD.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PD.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes