Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.63% | 3.23% | -6.92% | -1.44% | -9.30% | 9.22% | -1.53% | 3.17% | -4.97% | -3.60% | ||
| 2025 | 18.00% | -8.12% | -23.72% | 3.43% | 0.73% | 5.19% | 2.77% | -15.19% | 22.16% | -11.91% | -2.52% | -1.52% |
| 2024 | 7.15% | 3.26% | 1.05% | 4.17% | -10.82% | -15.57% | 0.75% | -9.78% | 7.55% | -13.03% | 6.27% | -4.74% |
| 2023 | -1.78% | 0.05% | 31.68% | -3.04% | -3.09% | 11.33% | 0.74% | 1.04% | -5.03% | 11.45% | 16.50% | -0.81% |
| 2022 | -7.83% | -5.85% | -22.00% | -19.87% | -2.87% | -3.59% | 9.57% | -12.31% | -2.00% | -11.82% | 16.70% | -1.73% |
| 2021 | 1.01% | 39.39% | 2.67% | 16.23% | 0.53% | -6.23% | -11.01% | -8.31% | 2.32% | -0.74% | -21.15% | 8.11% |
| 2020 | -12.46% | -1.65% | -10.91% | 3.25% | 9.94% | -7.19% | 16.57% | -4.70% | 17.96% | 25.73% | 37.16% | |
| Avg | 2.32% | 2.79% | -2.70% | -1.63% | -3.08% | 1.47% | -0.84% | -3.54% | 2.19% | -1.35% | 6.92% | 6.08% |
PBL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -3.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -17.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
PBL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PBL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PBL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes