Seasonality
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Seasonality
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ORV.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ORV.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +15.7% with a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +25.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is -44.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.00% | 15.34% | -23.39% | 1.80% | 13.53% | -16.58% | 16.77% | 38.83% | -13.03% | -22.91% | ||
| 2025 | 36.36% | 0.00% | 30.00% | 41.03% | 7.27% | -10.17% | 3.77% | 0.00% | 12.73% | 117.74% | 22.22% | 27.27% |
| 2024 | -6.67% | -7.14% | 23.08% | 18.75% | 15.79% | -9.09% | 20.00% | 41.67% | 20.59% | -2.44% | -37.50% | -12.00% |
| 2023 | -14.29% | 0.00% | 16.67% | -4.76% | -15.00% | -17.65% | 28.57% | 11.11% | -25.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | 12.90% | 40.00% | -12.24% | -27.91% | 9.68% | -2.94% | 0.00% | -24.24% | -16.00% | -14.29% | 0.00% | 16.67% |
| 2021 | -11.43% | -3.23% | -6.67% | -3.57% | 44.44% | 2.56% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -15.00% | -2.94% | 9.09% | -13.89% |
| 2020 | -24.00% | -21.05% | 20.00% | -11.11% | 31.25% | 19.05% | 8.00% | -7.41% | -4.00% | 4.17% | 40.00% | |
| Avg | 1.15% | 3.00% | 0.91% | 6.48% | 9.23% | -3.23% | 12.59% | 10.77% | -6.16% | 15.68% | -0.34% | 9.68% |
ORV.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ORV.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes